Berkhamsted vs Gosport Borough Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Berkhamsted and 1.10 for Gosport Borough, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Berkhamsted the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Berkhamsted home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Gosport Borough away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Berkhamsted to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 28% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Berkhamsted and 1.10 for Gosport Borough, a combined 2.33 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Berkhamsted win39%

Draw28%

Gosport Borough win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.2%
1–012.0%
0–110.8%
0–09.8%
2–18.1%

Recent form

Berkhamsted

2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cray Wanderers · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chichester City · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southend · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Yate Town · 3-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redditch United · 2-0 (W)

Gosport Borough

2026-09-30T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bracknell Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiverton Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Basingstoke Town · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Taunton Town · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth Parkway · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Non League Premier - Southern South table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	9	27
2	Uxbridge	11	8	2	1	15	26
3	Bath City	13	8	2	3	9	26
4	Hanworth Villa	13	7	3	3	10	24
5	Plymouth Parkway	12	7	2	3	12	23
6	Chichester City	13	7	1	5	2	22
7	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	7	19
8	Chertsey Town	12	5	4	3	7	19
9	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	4	19
10	Wimborne Town	11	5	3	3	11	18
11	Gosport Borough	13	5	3	5	2	18
12	Berkhamsted	12	5	1	6	-2	16
13	Basingstoke Town	13	4	3	6	-4	15
14	Bracknell Town	13	4	2	7	-14	14
15	Yate Town	12	3	4	5	-9	13
16	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	-11	13
17	Sholing	11	3	3	5	-4	12
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	-4	11
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	-15	11
20	Gloucester City	10	2	4	4	-3	10
21	Havant & Wville	13	2	3	8	-8	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	-14	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.