Športový areál Jána Popluhára · Analysis updated 15:53 UTC
Bernolákovo vs Báhoň Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bernolákovo and 1.80 for Báhoň, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Báhoň the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Báhoň win
48.1% probability
Expected goals
1.35 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bernolákovo home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Báhoň to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 29% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.35 goals for Bernolákovo and 1.80 for Báhoň, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 61% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–17.7%
- 2–17.0%
- 0–26.9%
Recent form
Bernolákovo
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Malinovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nová Dedinka · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 1-7 (L)
- 2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubia Veľký Biel · 3-3 (D)
Báhoň
Head-to-head
- 2022-06-04T15:30:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 3-2 Báhoň (3. liga - Bratislava)
- 2021-10-30T12:00:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 0-2 Báhoň (3. liga - Bratislava)
- 2020-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 1-0 Báhoň (3. liga - Bratislava)
3. liga - Bratislava table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rača | 30 | 24 | 3 | 3 | 62 | 75 |
| 2 | Slovan Ivanka | 30 | 23 | 3 | 4 | 40 | 72 |
| 3 | Inter Bratislava | 30 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 61 | 69 |
| 4 | Rusovce | 30 | 19 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 60 |
| 5 | Rovinka | 30 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 31 | 58 |
| 6 | Vrakuňa | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 52 |
| 7 | Malacky | 30 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 52 |
| 8 | MŠK Senec | 30 | 11 | 4 | 15 | -13 | 37 |
| 9 | Tomášov | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -3 | 35 |
| 10 | Pezinok | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -12 | 32 |
| 11 | Dunajská Lužná | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | -21 | 32 |
| 12 | Bernolákovo | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | -25 | 29 |
| 13 | Nová Dedinka | 30 | 6 | 3 | 21 | -44 | 21 |
| 14 | Slovan Most | 30 | 6 | 2 | 22 | -39 | 20 |
| 15 | Kalinkovo | 30 | 5 | 4 | 21 | -37 | 19 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva DNV | 30 | 4 | 6 | 20 | -51 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Báhoň win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.