Športový areál Jána Popluhára · Analysis updated 17:16 UTC
Bernolákovo vs Nová Dedinka Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.81 expected goals for Bernolákovo and 1.56 for Nová Dedinka, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Bernolákovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.4% probability
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bernolákovo home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bernolákovo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.81 goals for Bernolákovo and 1.56 for Nová Dedinka, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Bernolákovo
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Malinovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nová Dedinka · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 1-7 (L)
- 2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubia Veľký Biel · 3-3 (D)
Nová Dedinka
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs MŠK Senec · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovenský Grob · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-08-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs NMŠK 1922 Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Skalica · 1-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.