Športový areál Jána Popluhára · Analysis updated 17:52 UTC
Bernolákovo vs Rača Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bernolákovo and 1.53 for Rača, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Bernolákovo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bernolákovo home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rača away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Bernolákovo
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Malinovo · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-07-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Nová Dedinka · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rača · 1-7 (L)
- 2023-07-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Danubia Veľký Biel · 3-3 (D)
Rača
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Dunajská Lužná · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Komárno II · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Nitra · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Duslo Šaľa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T08:30:00.000Z · H vs DAC II · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 0-3 Rača (Cup)
- 2023-08-23T15:00:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 1-7 Rača (Cup)
- 2022-06-11T15:30:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 0-2 Rača (3. liga - Bratislava)
- 2021-11-06T12:30:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 0-1 Rača (3. liga - Bratislava)
- 2020-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · Bernolákovo 2-1 Rača (3. liga - Bratislava)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.