· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Beroe vs Ludogorets Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.34 expected goals for Beroe and 1.56 for Ludogorets, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Ludogorets the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.2% probability
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beroe home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ludogorets to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 33% / 25% / 43% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.34 goals for Beroe and 1.56 for Ludogorets, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 56% and both teams to score at 58%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
Beroe
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Yantra 2019 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 2-2 (D)
Ludogorets
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Arda Kardzhali · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherno More Varna · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Septemvri Sofia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotiv Sofia · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.