Stadion Beroe · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Beroe vs Spartak Pleven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Beroe and 0.75 for Spartak Pleven, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Beroe the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Beroe win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.60 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beroe home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Spartak Pleven away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beroe to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 25% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.60 goals for Beroe and 0.75 for Spartak Pleven, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.3%
- 2–012.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.9%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.25 | 40.3% | 42.3% | 2.36 | +2.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.57 | 56.9% | 57.7% | 1.73 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 5.20 | 17.2% | 17.4% | 5.75 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.55 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.15 | 41.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 75.6% | 75.1% | 1.33 | -0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.45 | 25.9% | 24.9% | 4.02 | -1.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 84.0% | 82.6% | 1.21 | -1.4 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Beroe
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Minyor Pernik · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Yantra 2019 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Nesebar · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportist Svoge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Dobrudzha · 2-2 (D)
Spartak Pleven
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pirin Blagoevgrad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Levski Krumovgrad · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fratria · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ludogorets II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T15:30:00.000Z · Beroe 3-0 Spartak Pleven (Second League)
- 2026-01-31T12:00:00.000Z · Beroe 2-0 Spartak Pleven (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-02-10T12:00:00.000Z · Beroe 3-0 Spartak Pleven (Friendlies Clubs)
Second League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Sofia II | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Vihren | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Chernomorets 1919 Burgas | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 24 |
| 4 | Fratria | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 22 |
| 5 | Rilski Sportist | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 6 | Yantra 2019 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 7 | Nesebar | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 8 | Beroe | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Lokomotiv G. Oryahovitsa | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 17 |
| 10 | Hebar 1918 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 17 |
| 11 | Etar Veliko Tarnovo | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | Marek | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 17 |
| 13 | Ludogorets II | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Spartak Pleven | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 14 |
| 15 | Montana | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -11 | 11 |
| 16 | Sportist Svoge | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 10 |
| 17 | Dobrudzha | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 | Pirin Blagoevgrad | 12 | 0 | 1 | 11 | -29 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beroe win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.