Bersenbrück vs Verden 04 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Bersenbrück and 1.48 for Verden 04, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Bersenbrück the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.73 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bersenbrück home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Verden 04 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bersenbrück to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 23% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Bersenbrück and 1.48 for Verden 04, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bersenbrück win44%

Draw23%

Verden 04 win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

56%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.0%
1–27.6%
1–07.0%
2–26.6%

Recent form

Bersenbrück

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Egestorf · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 5-0 (W)

Verden 04

2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Meppen II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Eintracht Braunschw. II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Heeslinger SC · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Wilhelmshaven · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Braunschw. II	12	8	2	2	18	26
2	Wilhelmshaven	11	7	3	1	14	24
3	Heeslinger SC	11	6	4	1	17	22
4	Spelle-Venhaus	11	6	4	1	11	22
5	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	10	6	3	1	10	21
6	Borussia Hildesheim	11	6	2	3	5	20
7	BW Lohne	10	5	2	3	6	17
8	Bersenbrück	11	5	1	5	0	16
9	Meppen II	11	5	1	5	-2	16
10	Verden 04	12	3	4	5	1	13
11	Nordhorn	12	3	4	5	-13	13
12	Germania Egestorf	10	2	3	5	-9	9
13	Hemmingen	11	2	1	8	-20	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	10	0	6	4	-5	6
15	Vorsfelde	11	1	2	8	-19	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.