· Analysis updated 00:44 UTC
Berwick Rangers vs Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Berwick Rangers and 2.38 for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws roughly 40% of the time.
Model pick
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic to Win
60.1% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 2.38
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–17.7%
- 1–37.3%
- 0–26.7%
- 2–26.2%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 21% / 19% / 60% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Berwick Rangers and 2.38 for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 72% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Model confidence
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic to Win is the headline pick at 60% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Berwick Rangers
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Lowland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broxburn Athletic | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 2 | Tranent Juniors | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 3 | Pollok | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 4 | Auchinleck Talbot | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 9 |
| 5 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 9 |
| 6 | Kilwinning Rangers | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | Caledonian Braves | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Largs Thistle | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Celtic II | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Civil Service Strollers | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Brechin | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Beith | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | East Stirlingshire | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Lochee United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | Bo'ness United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Clydebank | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 18 | Johnstone Burgh | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| 19 | Linlithgow Rose | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| 20 | Cumnock Juniors | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 21 | Troon FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 22 | Musselburgh Athletic | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 23 | Gretna 2008 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 24 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 25 | Berwick Rangers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 26 | Albion Rovers | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 27 | Cumbernauld Colts | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 1 |
| 28 | Renfrew | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 1 |
| 29 | Newton Stewart | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -14 | 1 |
| 30 | Dunipace | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Stirling University | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| 32 | Cowdenbeath | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 0 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.