· Analysis updated 17:45 UTC
Besa Biel/Bienne vs Biel-Bienne Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Besa Biel/Bienne and 2.18 for Biel-Bienne, a combined total of 3.62. That distribution gives Biel-Bienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Biel-Bienne win
54.4% probability
Expected goals
1.44 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Besa Biel/Bienne home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Biel-Bienne away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Biel-Bienne to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 25% / 21% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Besa Biel/Bienne and 2.18 for Biel-Bienne, a combined 3.62 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–18.4%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.4%
Recent form
Besa Biel/Bienne
- 2026-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Münsingen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-4 (L)
Biel-Bienne
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bavois · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern II · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Biel-Bienne win, at 54.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.