Besa Biel/Bienne vs Concordia Basel Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.58 expected goals for Besa Biel/Bienne and 2.10 for Concordia Basel, a combined total of 3.68. That distribution gives Concordia Basel the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Concordia Basel win

49.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.58 – 2.10

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Besa Biel/Bienne home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Concordia Basel away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Concordia Basel to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 29% / 21% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.58 goals for Besa Biel/Bienne and 2.10 for Concordia Basel, a combined 3.68 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Besa Biel/Bienne win29%

Draw21%

Concordia Basel win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals71%

Over 3.5 goals50%

Both teams to score70%

Correct score

1–28.8%
1–18.4%
2–26.9%
2–16.6%
1–36.2%

Recent form

Besa Biel/Bienne

2026-07-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Biel-Bienne · 0-4 (L)
2026-07-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 1-3 (L)
2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Münsingen · 2-4 (L)
2026-05-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Langenthal · 2-3 (L)
2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Schötz · 1-4 (L)

Concordia Basel

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grasshopper II · 5-2 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Muri-Gümligen · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Zug · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Solothurn · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Muttenz · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Langenthal	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Courtételle	11	7	1	3	11	22
3	Schötz	11	6	2	3	11	20
4	Muttenz	11	6	2	3	6	20
5	Solothurn	11	6	1	4	7	19
6	Delémont	10	5	2	3	7	17
7	Concordia Basel	11	5	2	4	6	17
8	Buochs	11	5	1	5	-1	16
9	Muri-Gümligen	11	5	1	5	-3	16
10	Grasshopper II	11	5	0	6	-3	15
11	Zug	11	4	1	6	-8	13
12	FC Wohlen	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Thun II	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Bassecourt	10	3	1	6	-9	10
15	Black Stars	11	1	6	4	-5	9
16	Münsingen	11	0	2	9	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Concordia Basel win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.