· Analysis updated 15:45 UTC
Besa Kavajë vs Burreli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Besa Kavajë and 1.28 for Burreli, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Besa Kavajë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Besa Kavajë win
60.8% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Besa Kavajë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Burreli away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Besa Kavajë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 19% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.33 goals for Besa Kavajë and 1.28 for Burreli, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 1–18.1%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.3%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Besa Kavajë
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 4-0 (W)
Burreli
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Oriku · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Flamurtari · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apolonia Fier · 4-4 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Besa Kavajë win, at 60.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.