· Analysis updated 17:55 UTC
Besa Kavajë vs Devolli Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.51 expected goals for Besa Kavajë and 1.41 for Devolli, a combined total of 3.92. That distribution gives Besa Kavajë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Besa Kavajë win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
2.51 – 1.41
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Besa Kavajë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Devolli away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Besa Kavajë to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 18% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.51 goals for Besa Kavajë and 1.41 for Devolli, a combined 3.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.4%
- 1–17.0%
- 2–06.2%
- 2–26.2%
Recent form
Besa Kavajë
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 4-0 (W)
Devolli
- 2025-10-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-3 (L)
- 2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tomori Berat · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Këlcyra · 3-4 (L)
- 2025-03-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Memaliaj · 5-1 (W)
- 2025-03-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Luftëtari · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Besa Kavajë win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.