· Analysis updated 22:48 UTC
Besa Kavajë vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Besa Kavajë and 1.28 for Iliria Fushë-Krujë, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Besa Kavajë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Besa Kavajë win
59.9% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Besa Kavajë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Iliria Fushë-Krujë away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 1–18.3%
- 2–07.4%
- 3–17.2%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Besa Kavajë
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 4-0 (W)
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastrioti Krujë · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Burreli · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besa Kavajë · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Veleçiku Koplik · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bylis · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-07T14:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 2-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (Superliga)
- 2026-02-22T12:30:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2025-12-21T12:30:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 3-1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2025-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 1-2 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2020-02-01T13:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2019-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 1-1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2017-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2017-03-18T14:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 3-1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2017-02-04T13:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 2-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
- 2016-10-22T12:30:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 1-0 Iliria Fushë-Krujë (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Besa Kavajë win, at 59.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.