· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Besa Kavajë vs Pogradeci Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Besa Kavajë and 1.22 for Pogradeci, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Besa Kavajë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.4% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.22
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Besa Kavajë home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Pogradeci away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–07.4%
Recent form
Besa Kavajë
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Devolli · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 4-0 (W)
Pogradeci
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Flamurtari · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kastrioti Krujë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 1-1 Pogradeci (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-11T15:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-1 Pogradeci (Superliga)
- 2026-03-14T14:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 2-3 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2026-01-17T12:30:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-0 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2025-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 1-1 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2025-04-28T15:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-1 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2025-03-15T13:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 1-0 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2024-12-02T12:30:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-0 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2024-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 2-0 Pogradeci (1st Division)
- 2022-01-29T12:30:00.000Z · Besa Kavajë 0-3 Pogradeci (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.