· Analysis updated 20:41 UTC
Besëlidhja Lezhë vs Kastrioti Krujë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Besëlidhja Lezhë and 1.30 for Kastrioti Krujë, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Kastrioti Krujë the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.9% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Besëlidhja Lezhë home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kastrioti Krujë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–28.3%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Besëlidhja Lezhë
- 2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Besa Kavajë · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bylis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korabi Peshkopi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Kukesi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Korabi Peshkopi · 0-0 (D)
Kastrioti Krujë
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Besëlidhja Lezhë · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Oriku · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Luzi 2008 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sopoti Librazhd · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 4-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2020-07-11T15:30:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 2-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2020-06-20T15:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 0-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2019-12-15T12:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 1-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2019-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 0-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2018-04-14T14:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 0-3 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2018-03-10T13:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 0-0 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2018-02-17T13:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 0-2 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2017-11-05T13:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 0-2 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
- 2017-02-05T13:00:00.000Z · Besëlidhja Lezhë 1-1 Kastrioti Krujë (1st Division)
1st Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Besa Kavajë | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Pogradeci | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Flamurtari | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | FK Kukesi | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Iliria Fushë-Krujë | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Bylis | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Besëlidhja Lezhë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Kastrioti Krujë | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 9 | Korabi Peshkopi | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 10 | Sopoti Librazhd | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 11 | Burreli | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 12 | Oriku | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.