Tupras Stadium · Analysis updated 21:32 UTC
Beşiktaş vs Başakşehir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.53 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.98 for Başakşehir, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Beşiktaş the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Beşiktaş win
71.0% probability
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beşiktaş home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Başakşehir away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beşiktaş to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.53 goals for Beşiktaş and 0.98 for Başakşehir, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
29%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–09.6%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–08.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 1–07.6%
Recent form
Beşiktaş
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 6-2 (W)
Başakşehir
- 2026-10-11T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Konyaspor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Kasımpaşa · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Galatasaray | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 2 | Beşiktaş | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 15 |
| 3 | Amed | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Fenerbahçe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 13 |
| 5 | Trabzonspor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 13 |
| 6 | Alanyaspor | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Kocaelispor | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Çorum FK | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Kasımpaşa | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Rizespor | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Başakşehir | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Gaziantep FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 13 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Erzurumspor FK | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 15 | Konyaspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 16 | Samsunspor | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 17 | Göztepe | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Eyüpspor | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beşiktaş win, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.