Beşiktaş vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for Beşiktaş and 0.75 for Erzurumspor FK, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Beşiktaş the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Beşiktaş win

74.7% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.45 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Beşiktaş home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Erzurumspor FK away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Beşiktaş win75%

Draw16%

Erzurumspor FK win9%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

25%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

2–012.2%
3–010.0%
1–010.0%
2–19.2%
3–17.5%

Recent form

Beşiktaş

2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Amed · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Marseille · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzurumspor FK · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Fenerbahçe · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Çorum FK · 6-2 (W)

Erzurumspor FK

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Samsunspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Beşiktaş · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Konyaspor · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Galatasaray · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 3-0 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)
2021-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 4-2 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)
2020-12-20T16:00:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 4-0 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)
2020-01-22T17:30:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 2-3 Erzurumspor FK (Türkiye Kupası)
2020-01-15T15:30:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 2-3 Erzurumspor FK (Türkiye Kupası)
2019-01-25T17:30:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 1-1 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)
2018-08-19T16:15:00.000Z · Beşiktaş 3-1 Erzurumspor FK (Süper Lig)

Süper Lig table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Galatasaray	7	5	1	1	5	16
2	Beşiktaş	7	5	0	2	8	15
3	Amed	7	4	2	1	8	14
4	Fenerbahçe	7	4	1	2	13	13
5	Trabzonspor	7	4	1	2	11	13
6	Alanyaspor	7	3	3	1	2	12
7	Kocaelispor	7	4	0	3	2	12
8	Çorum FK	7	3	1	3	4	10
9	Kasımpaşa	7	2	4	1	0	10
10	Rizespor	7	3	1	3	-2	10
11	Başakşehir	7	2	2	3	-1	8
12	Gaziantep FK	7	2	2	3	-3	8
13	Gençlerbirliği S.K.	7	2	2	3	-8	8
14	Erzurumspor FK	7	2	2	3	-8	8
15	Göztepe	7	1	3	3	0	6
16	Konyaspor	7	1	2	4	-4	5
17	Samsunspor	7	1	1	5	-9	4
18	Eyüpspor	7	1	0	6	-18	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Beşiktaş win, at 74.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.