· Analysis updated 15:34 UTC
Beti Kozkor vs Doneztebe FT Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.54 expected goals for Beti Kozkor and 1.16 for Doneztebe FT, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Beti Kozkor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Beti Kozkor win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.54 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beti Kozkor home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Beti Kozkor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 25% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.54 goals for Beti Kozkor and 1.16 for Doneztebe FT, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 51% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–010.3%
- 2–19.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 0–17.8%
Recent form
Beti Kozkor
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Txantrea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 0-0 (D)
Doneztebe FT
- 2026-10-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Aoiz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cantolagua · 6-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 17 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 7 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Beti Onak | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | San Juan | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 12 | Txantrea | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 5 |
| 14 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Huarte | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Beti Kozkor win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.