· Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Beti Onak vs Subiza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Beti Onak and 1.69 for Subiza, a combined total of 2.96. That distribution gives Subiza the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Subiza win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Beti Onak home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Subiza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Subiza to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 29% / 24% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Beti Onak and 1.69 for Subiza, a combined 2.96 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–18.7%
- 0–27.4%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Beti Onak
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Valle Egüés · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 2-1 (W)
Subiza
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cirbonero · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valle Egüés · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 18 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Avance Ezcabarte | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Subiza | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Aoiz | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 8 | San Juan | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 9 | Doneztebe FT | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Valle Egüés | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Txantrea | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | -3 | 5 |
| 13 | Cortes | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 5 |
| 14 | Cirbonero | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 5 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Huarte | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -13 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Subiza win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.