Estadio de La Cartuja · Analysis updated 08:32 UTC
Betis C vs Xerez Deportivo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Betis C and 1.92 for Xerez Deportivo, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Betis C the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.9% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Betis C home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Xerez Deportivo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Betis C to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 21% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Betis C and 1.92 for Xerez Deportivo, a combined 3.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–17.6%
- 2–17.6%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 3–15.1%
Recent form
Betis C
- 2026-10-18T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Chiclana · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Egabrense · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T17:00:00.000Z · A vs San Roque Lepe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Xerez Deportivo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 4-2 (W)
Xerez Deportivo
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Egabrense · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs San Roque Lepe · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Betis C · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bollullos · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 |
| 2 | Tomares | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 17 |
| 3 | Portuense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | Utrera | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 15 |
| 5 | Betis C | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 6 | San Roque Lepe | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Xerez Deportivo | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Pozoblanco | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Ceuta II | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Conil | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Chiclana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 12 | Egabrense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Sevilla III | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Bollullos | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.