· Analysis updated 10:05 UTC
Betlemi vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.52 expected goals for Betlemi and 1.78 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Lokomotivi Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lokomotivi Tbilisi win
67.9% probability
Expected goals
0.52 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Betlemi home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotivi Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 10% / 22% / 68% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.52 goals for Betlemi and 1.78 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
32%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.8%
- 0–215.8%
- 0–010.0%
- 0–39.3%
- 1–19.3%
Recent form
Betlemi
- 2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 0-8 (L)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iberia 2010 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Margveti 2006 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Gardabani · 1-2 (L)
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Didube 2014 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-07T12:00:00.000Z · Betlemi 0-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Liga 3)
- 2014-05-01T13:00:00.000Z · Betlemi 0-5 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
- 2013-11-13T10:00:00.000Z · Betlemi 1-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotivi Tbilisi win, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.