· Analysis updated 06:13 UTC
Betlemi vs Merani Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Betlemi and 2.47 for Merani Tbilisi, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Merani Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Merani Tbilisi win
75.0% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 2.47
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Betlemi home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Merani Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Merani Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 9% / 16% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Betlemi and 2.47 for Merani Tbilisi, a combined 3.23 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–212.1%
- 0–310.0%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–37.5%
Recent form
Betlemi
- 2026-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Guria · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Didube 2014 · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 4-5 (L)
Merani Tbilisi
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Margveti 2006 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 56 | 55 |
| 2 | Varketili | 24 | 15 | 8 | 1 | 43 | 53 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 24 | 11 | 10 | 3 | 18 | 43 |
| 4 | Merani Tbilisi | 23 | 11 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 40 |
| 5 | WIT Georgia | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 38 |
| 6 | Gonio | 23 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 35 |
| 8 | Didube 2014 | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 35 |
| 9 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 32 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 1 | 31 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -9 | 31 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | -15 | 25 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 24 | 2 | 11 | 11 | -16 | 17 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -40 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -48 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -36 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Merani Tbilisi win, at 75.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.