· Analysis updated 04:39 UTC
Bezana vs Atlético Albericia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.02 expected goals for Bezana and 0.93 for Atlético Albericia, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Bezana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bezana win
62.6% probability
Expected goals
2.02 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bezana home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Albericia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.7%
- 1–010.6%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.8%
- 3–07.2%
Recent form
Bezana
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sámano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Cayón · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 2-0 (W)
Atlético Albericia
- 2026-09-27T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Solares · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Selaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Laredo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bezana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Selaya · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · Bezana 2-1 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2026-04-11T14:45:00.000Z · Bezana 2-3 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-12-07T17:00:00.000Z · Bezana 1-0 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-03-08T16:30:00.000Z · Bezana 2-2 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2024-10-26T15:00:00.000Z · Bezana 2-1 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2024-04-13T15:00:00.000Z · Bezana 1-0 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2023-11-25T16:00:00.000Z · Bezana 0-2 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2021-03-27T16:00:00.000Z · Bezana 1-2 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2021-01-09T16:00:00.000Z · Bezana 1-0 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2020-02-29T18:00:00.000Z · Bezana 4-2 Atlético Albericia (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Laredo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Revilla | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 4 | Bezana | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | Cayón | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 7 | Sámano | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 8 | Torina | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 12 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 11 | Guarnizo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 12 | Selaya | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Solares | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Escobedo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 16 | Naval Reinosa | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 5 |
| 18 | Barquereño | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bezana win, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.