Bezana vs Noja Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.23 expected goals for Bezana and 0.84 for Noja, a combined total of 3.07. That distribution gives Bezana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bezana win

69.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.23 – 0.84

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bezana home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Noja away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bezana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 69%, against 69% / 18% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.23 goals for Bezana and 0.84 for Noja, a combined 3.07 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bezana win69%

Draw18%

Noja win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

31%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals59%

Over 3.5 goals37%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

2–011.6%
1–010.4%
2–19.7%
1–18.7%
3–08.6%

Recent form

Bezana

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 2-1 (W)

Noja

2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ribadesella CF · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cartes · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimnástica Torrelavega · 0-6 (L)
2026-04-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Revilla · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bezana win, at 69.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.