Bezana vs Velarde Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Bezana and 0.58 for Velarde, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Bezana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 74%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 74% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Bezana win

74.3% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.18 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bezana home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Velarde away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bezana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 74%, against 74% / 17% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Bezana and 0.58 for Velarde, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bezana win74%

Draw17%

Velarde win8%

Double chance 1X

92%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

26%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

2–015.0%
1–013.8%
3–010.9%
2–18.7%
1–18.0%

Recent form

Bezana

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Albericia · 2-1 (W)

Velarde

2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Barquereño · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Naval Reinosa · 0-0 (D)
2024-05-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bezana win, at 74.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.