BFA vs Babrungas Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.72 expected goals for BFA and 1.61 for Babrungas, a combined total of 2.34. That distribution gives Babrungas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Babrungas win

58.8% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.72 – 1.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BFA home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Babrungas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 17% / 25% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.72 goals for BFA and 1.61 for Babrungas, a combined 2.34 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 41% and both teams to score at 41%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.

Match result (1X2)

BFA win17%

Draw25%

Babrungas win59%

Double chance 1X

41%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

84%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals41%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.6%
0–212.6%
1–111.3%
0–09.7%
1–29.1%

Recent form

BFA

2026-10-09T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Žalgiris II · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Panevėžys · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Atmosfera · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Garliava · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-04T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Babrungas · 2-1 (W)

Babrungas

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1 Lyga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Minija	26	22	1	3	54	67
2	Babrungas	27	21	4	2	35	67
3	Be1 NFA	26	17	3	6	20	54
4	Žalgiris II	27	14	4	9	6	46
5	Tauras	26	13	5	8	12	44
6	Dainava	27	12	8	7	12	44
7	Neptūną Klaipėda	27	14	2	11	0	44
8	BFA	27	13	4	10	0	43
9	Atmosfera	26	9	7	10	5	34
10	Jonava	27	8	6	13	-4	30
11	Garliava	27	8	5	14	-1	29
12	Hegelmann II	27	8	2	17	-25	26
13	Transinvest 2	27	7	4	16	-27	25
14	Kauno Žalgiris II	27	7	2	18	-22	23
15	FA Šiauliai II	27	4	6	17	-30	18
16	Ekranas	27	4	3	20	-35	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Babrungas win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.