Stadions Celtnieks · Referee A. Griscenko · Analysis updated 13:44 UTC
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.42 expected goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.05 for FS Jelgava, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives BFC Daugavpils the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BFC Daugavpils win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BFC Daugavpils home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FS Jelgava away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BFC Daugavpils to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.42 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.05 for FS Jelgava, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 2–08.5%
Recent form
BFC Daugavpils
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ogre United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs FK Liepaja · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rīgas FS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Riga · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Auda · 2-2 (D)
FS Jelgava
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Rīgas FS · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Riga · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Grobiņa · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Super Nova · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tukums · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Virsliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 30 | 23 | 5 | 2 | 49 | 74 |
| 2 | Riga | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 56 | 73 |
| 3 | Auda | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 61 |
| 4 | FK Liepaja | 31 | 12 | 7 | 12 | -2 | 43 |
| 5 | BFC Daugavpils | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 0 | 39 |
| 6 | Super Nova | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | -11 | 35 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 31 | 8 | 8 | 15 | -17 | 32 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 31 | 5 | 11 | 15 | -31 | 26 |
| 9 | Tukums | 31 | 5 | 9 | 17 | -17 | 24 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | -46 | 18 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BFC Daugavpils win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.