BFC Dynamo vs BSG Chemie Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for BFC Dynamo and 0.86 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined total of 2.82. That distribution gives BFC Dynamo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BFC Dynamo win

63.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.96 – 0.86

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BFC Dynamo home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
BSG Chemie Leipzig away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BFC Dynamo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 21% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for BFC Dynamo and 0.86 for BSG Chemie Leipzig, a combined 2.82 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BFC Dynamo win63%

Draw21%

BSG Chemie Leipzig win16%

Double chance 1X

84%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

37%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.7%
2–011.4%
1–110.1%
2–19.8%
3–07.5%

Recent form

BFC Dynamo

2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-3 (L)

BSG Chemie Leipzig

2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chemnitzer FC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tasmania Berlin · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chemnitzer FC	13	9	3	1	22	30
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	13	8	4	1	23	28
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	13	8	1	4	11	25
5	BFC Dynamo	13	7	4	2	9	25
6	Altglienicke	13	7	3	3	7	24
7	Greifswalder FC	13	6	4	3	6	22
8	Erzgebirge Aue	13	6	3	4	2	21
9	FSV Zwickau	13	5	4	4	-2	19
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
11	Magdeburg II	13	5	1	7	-2	16
12	SV Babelsberg 03	13	3	4	6	-9	13
13	BFC Preussen	13	2	5	6	-5	11
14	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
16	RSV Eintracht	13	2	3	8	-16	9
17	Tasmania Berlin	13	2	2	9	-19	8
18	Luckenwalde	13	2	0	11	-18	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BFC Dynamo win, at 63.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.