· Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
BFC Dynamo vs Chemnitzer FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for BFC Dynamo and 1.40 for Chemnitzer FC, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Chemnitzer FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BFC Dynamo home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Chemnitzer FC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Chemnitzer FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 35% / 26% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for BFC Dynamo and 1.40 for Chemnitzer FC, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 0–19.4%
- 1–08.7%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–18.0%
Recent form
BFC Dynamo
- 2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FSV Zwickau · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-3 (L)
Chemnitzer FC
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs RSV Eintracht · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs BSG Chemie Leipzig · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Altglienicke · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chemnitzer FC | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 22 | 29 |
| 2 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 27 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 4 | BFC Dynamo | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 22 |
| 6 | Greifswalder FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Altglienicke | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 8 | Erzgebirge Aue | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 9 | FSV Zwickau | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 10 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 11 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Magdeburg II | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -4 | 13 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Hertha BSC II | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -12 | 10 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | RSV Eintracht | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -17 | 6 |
| 17 | Luckenwalde | 12 | 2 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 6 |
| 18 | Tasmania Berlin | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -25 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.