BFC Preussen vs Magdeburg II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for BFC Preussen and 1.51 for Magdeburg II, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives BFC Preussen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BFC Preussen win

45.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.85 – 1.51

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BFC Preussen home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Magdeburg II away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BFC Preussen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 23% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for BFC Preussen and 1.51 for Magdeburg II, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BFC Preussen win46%

Draw23%

Magdeburg II win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score66%

Correct score

1–19.7%
2–19.0%
1–27.3%
2–26.8%
1–06.4%

Recent form

BFC Preussen

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hertha BSC II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hallescher FC · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Tasmania Berlin · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg II · 4-1 (W)

Magdeburg II

2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-02T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Luckenwalde · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Altglienicke · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BFC Dynamo · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chemnitzer FC	12	9	2	1	22	29
2	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	12	8	3	1	23	27
3	Hallescher FC	12	7	4	1	10	25
4	BFC Dynamo	12	7	3	2	9	24
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	12	7	1	4	10	22
6	Greifswalder FC	12	6	4	2	8	22
7	Altglienicke	12	6	3	3	5	21
8	Erzgebirge Aue	12	6	3	3	3	21
9	FSV Zwickau	12	5	3	4	-2	18
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	12	4	4	4	0	16
11	SV Babelsberg 03	12	3	4	5	-3	13
12	Magdeburg II	12	4	1	7	-4	13
13	BFC Preussen	12	2	5	5	-3	11
14	Hertha BSC II	12	2	4	6	-12	10
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	12	2	3	7	-7	9
16	RSV Eintracht	12	1	3	8	-17	6
17	Luckenwalde	12	2	0	10	-17	6
18	Tasmania Berlin	12	1	2	9	-25	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BFC Preussen win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.