· Analysis updated 13:18 UTC
BG Pathum United vs Aston Villa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 2.08 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Aston Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
61.7% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 2.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BG Pathum United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aston Villa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Aston Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 38% / 21% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for BG Pathum United and 2.08 for Aston Villa, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.3%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–17.1%
- 1–35.1%
Recent form
BG Pathum United
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangkok United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rasi Salai United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
Aston Villa
- 2026-10-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Viking · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fenerbahçe · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brentford · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Sevilla · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 61.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.