BG Pathum United vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 0.98 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives BG Pathum United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BG Pathum United win

48.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BG Pathum United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BG Pathum United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 27% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for BG Pathum United and 0.98 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

BG Pathum United win48%

Draw27%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals70%

Over 2.5 goals44%

Over 3.5 goals23%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

1–012.8%
1–112.5%
2–09.3%
2–19.1%
0–08.8%

Recent form

BG Pathum United

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangrai United · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayutthaya FC · 1-1 (D)

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

2026-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Esan Pattaya · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Phrae United · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Muang Loei United · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Police Tero · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chainat · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Thai League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Port FC	6	5	0	1	7	15
2	Prachuap	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Buriram United	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Ratchaburi	6	3	1	2	6	10
5	Uthai Thani	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Ayutthaya FC	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Bangkok United	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	Sisaket United	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	BG Pathum United	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sukhothai FC	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Rayong FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Lamphun Warrior	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Chiangrai United	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Pattani	6	1	1	4	-6	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	1	0	5	-4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BG Pathum United win, at 48.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.