True BG Stadium · Referee M. Pechsri · Analysis updated 14:30 UTC
BG Pathum United vs Rasi Salai United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.29 for Rasi Salai United, a combined total of 3.74. That distribution gives BG Pathum United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
BG Pathum United win
62.9% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BG Pathum United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rasi Salai United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BG Pathum United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 18% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.29 for Rasi Salai United, a combined 3.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
BG Pathum United
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bangkok United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rasi Salai United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Pattani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aston Villa · 1-3 (L)
Rasi Salai United
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Lamphun Warrior · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs BG Pathum United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Nong Bua Pitchaya · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-04-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Mahasarakham United · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Prachuap | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Port FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Chiangrai United | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BG Pathum United win, at 62.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.