True BG Stadium · Analysis updated 01:00 UTC
BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.50 for Rayong FC, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives BG Pathum United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
BG Pathum United win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BG Pathum United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rayong FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BG Pathum United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 20% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.25 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.50 for Rayong FC, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
BG Pathum United
- 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangrai United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayutthaya FC · 1-1 (D)
Rayong FC
- 2026-10-24T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Port FC · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thap Luang United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Uthai Thani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Buriram United · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ratchaburi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Thai League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Prachuap | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Ayutthaya FC | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Bangkok United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 8 | Sisaket United | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | BG Pathum United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Sukhothai FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Rayong FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Lamphun Warrior | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 13 | Chiangrai United | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Chonburi FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 3 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is BG Pathum United win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.