BG Pathum United vs Sukhothai FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for BG Pathum United and 1.29 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives BG Pathum United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

BG Pathum United win

55.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.29

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

BG Pathum United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sukhothai FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates BG Pathum United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 21% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for BG Pathum United and 1.29 for Sukhothai FC, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

BG Pathum United win56%

Draw21%

Sukhothai FC win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

44%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score63%

Correct score

2–19.6%
1–19.2%
2–07.5%
1–07.1%
3–16.7%

Recent form

BG Pathum United

2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chiangrai United · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-21T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Khon Kaen United · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Sisaket United · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-15T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ayutthaya FC · 1-1 (D)

Sukhothai FC

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Uthai Thani · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-20T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Romklao United · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Rasi Salai United · 5-1 (W)
2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ratchaburi · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-20T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Port FC · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Thai League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Port FC	6	5	0	1	7	15
2	Prachuap	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Buriram United	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Ratchaburi	6	3	1	2	6	10
5	Uthai Thani	6	3	1	2	4	10
6	Ayutthaya FC	6	3	1	2	2	10
7	Bangkok United	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	Sisaket United	6	3	1	2	0	10
9	BG Pathum United	6	2	3	1	2	9
10	Sukhothai FC	6	3	0	3	-3	9
11	Rayong FC	6	2	2	2	-2	8
12	Lamphun Warrior	6	2	1	3	-2	7
13	Chiangrai United	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Pattani	6	1	1	4	-6	4
15	Chonburi FC	6	1	0	5	-4	3
16	Rasi Salai United	6	0	1	5	-11	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is BG Pathum United win, at 55.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.