Bhayangkara FC vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bhayangkara FC and 1.06 for Persebaya Surabaya, a combined total of 2.49. That distribution gives Bhayangkara FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bhayangkara FC win

45.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.06

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bhayangkara FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Persebaya Surabaya away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bhayangkara FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Bhayangkara FC and 1.06 for Persebaya Surabaya, a combined 2.49 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Bhayangkara FC win46%

Draw27%

Persebaya Surabaya win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals71%

Over 2.5 goals45%

Over 3.5 goals24%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–112.6%
1–011.9%
2–19.0%
0–18.8%
2–08.5%

Recent form

Bhayangkara FC

2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persepam Madura Utd · 3-3 (D)
2026-10-10T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Arema FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Dewa United · 2-2 (D)

Persebaya Surabaya

2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Persija	6	5	0	1	10	15
2	Dewa United	6	4	2	0	6	14
3	Persepam Madura Utd	6	4	1	1	4	13
4	Bali United	6	4	0	2	12	12
5	Persita	5	3	2	0	3	11
6	Bhayangkara FC	6	2	4	0	3	10
7	Persik Kediri	6	3	1	2	3	10
8	Persib Bandung	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Persebaya Surabaya	6	2	3	1	1	9
10	PSM Makassar	6	2	2	2	-3	8
11	Java United	7	2	3	2	0	7
12	Arema FC	6	1	3	2	-2	6
13	Pusamania Borneo	5	2	0	3	-2	6
14	Garudayaksa	6	1	2	3	-6	5
15	PSS Sleman	6	1	1	4	-2	4
16	Isenmulang Kalteng	7	1	2	4	-9	3
17	PSIM Yogyakarta	7	0	2	5	-8	2
18	Persijap	7	0	1	6	-12	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bhayangkara FC win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.