· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Bhutan U19 vs Paro Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Bhutan U19 and 4.29 for Paro, a combined total of 5.23. That distribution gives Paro the largest share of the 1X2 market at 90%, with the draw at 6%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 0–4 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 90% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Paro win
90.1% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 4.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bhutan U19 home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Paro to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 90%, against 4% / 6% / 90% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Bhutan U19 and 4.29 for Paro, a combined 5.23 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 86% and both teams to score at 58%, with 0–4 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
10%
Double chance 12
94%
Double chance X2
96%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–47.6%
- 1–47.1%
- 0–37.1%
- 1–36.6%
- 0–56.5%
Recent form
Bhutan U19
- 2026-08-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Tsirang · 5-5 (D)
- 2026-08-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ugyen Academy · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-07-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Drukpa · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-07-24T10:00:00.000Z · A vs RTC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-07-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Drukpa · 2-2 (D)
Paro
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paro | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 62 | 49 |
| 2 | Thimphu City | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 40 |
| 3 | Thimphu | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 4 | Transport United | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 30 |
| 5 | RTC | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 28 |
| 6 | Drukpa | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Bhutan U19 | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -16 | 20 |
| 8 | Tsirang | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -21 | 16 |
| 9 | Tensung | 18 | 2 | 2 | 14 | -39 | 8 |
| 10 | Ugyen Academy | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | -46 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Paro win, at 90.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–4.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 90% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.