Bicskei vs Pápai Perutz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Bicskei and 1.68 for Pápai Perutz, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Bicskei the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Bicskei win

59.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.70 – 1.68

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Bicskei home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 6 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bicskei to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Bicskei and 1.68 for Pápai Perutz, a combined 4.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Bicskei win59%

Draw18%

Pápai Perutz win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

41%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals81%

Over 3.5 goals63%

Both teams to score76%

Correct score

2–17.7%
3–16.9%
2–26.4%
3–25.8%
1–15.7%

Recent form

Bicskei

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Zalaegerszegi TE II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárom · 4-5 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs 1908 SZAC · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hartai · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Veszprém · 3-2 (W)

Pápai Perutz

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Gyori ETO II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haladás VSE · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MTE 1904 · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Dorogi FC · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Puskás II · 0-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Bicskei 9-0 Pápai Perutz (NB III - Northwest)
2025-08-17T17:30:00.000Z · Bicskei 1-1 Pápai Perutz (NB III - Northwest)
2023-08-26T14:30:00.000Z · Bicskei 4-0 Pápai Perutz (Magyar Kupa)
2022-04-17T16:00:00.000Z · Bicskei 1-0 Pápai Perutz (NB III - Southwest)
2021-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · Bicskei 1-1 Pápai Perutz (NB III - Southwest)
2019-10-20T12:00:00.000Z · Bicskei 2-1 Pápai Perutz (NB III - Southwest)

NB III - Northwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	11	8	2	1	22	26
2	Tatabánya	11	8	2	1	20	26
3	Haladás VSE	11	7	4	0	21	25
4	Sárisápi Bányász	11	6	2	3	1	20
5	SC Sopron	11	5	3	3	5	18
6	Bicskei	11	6	0	5	3	18
7	Puskás II	11	5	1	5	3	16
8	MTE 1904	11	4	4	3	3	16
9	Komárom	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Gyori ETO II	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Veszprém	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Pápai Perutz	11	3	2	6	-12	11
14	Király SZE	11	1	4	6	-11	7
15	Balatonalmádi	11	1	2	8	-23	5
16	1908 SZAC	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Bicskei win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.

A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.