Kenyatta Stadium · Analysis updated 14:15 UTC
Bidco United vs Kariobangi Sharks Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for Bidco United and 0.85 for Kariobangi Sharks, a combined total of 1.50. That distribution gives Kariobangi Sharks the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 37%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 19% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
74.1% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bidco United home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kariobangi Sharks to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 26% / 37% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.65 goals for Bidco United and 0.85 for Kariobangi Sharks, a combined 1.50 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
64%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–022.3%
- 0–119.0%
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 0–28.1%
Recent form
Bidco United
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Leopards · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Murang'a SEAL · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Shabana · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-10T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Tusker · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Kariobangi Sharks · 0-0 (D)
Kariobangi Sharks
- 2026-10-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mombasa Elite · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Mombasa Elite · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-31T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sofapaka · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-05-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kenya Police · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Homeboyz · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T11:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 0-0 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2025-12-18T11:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 0-1 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2025-01-26T10:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 1-1 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2024-10-23T10:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 1-0 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2024-06-15T10:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 0-1 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2023-12-17T12:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 0-0 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2023-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 1-2 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2023-01-28T10:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 1-1 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2022-04-03T12:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 1-2 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
- 2022-03-16T12:00:00.000Z · Bidco United 1-1 Kariobangi Sharks (FKF Premier League)
FKF Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 2 | 3K | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | Mara Sugar | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 4 | AFC Leopards | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Shabana | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 6 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | KCB | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Tusker | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Murang'a SEAL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Nairobi United | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Posta Rangers FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Migori Youth | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| 13 | Kenya Police | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 14 | Bandari | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 15 | APS Bomet | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 16 | Mathare United | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Ulinzi Stars | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 2 |
| 18 | Mombasa Elite | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 74.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 19%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.