The Sports Ground · Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Bideford vs Wells City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Bideford and 1.26 for Wells City, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Bideford the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bideford win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bideford home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bideford to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Bideford and 1.26 for Wells City, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 62% and both teams to score at 61%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.7%
- 3–16.3%
Recent form
Bideford
- 2026-07-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Taunton Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bishop's Cleeve · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Swindon Supermarine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:22.000Z · A vs Larkhall Athletic · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Exmouth · 1-0 (W)
Wells City
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hungerford Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2023-08-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Portchester · 1-2 (L)
- 2020-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bideford · 0-3 (L)
- 2020-09-01T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Bovey Tracey · 2-0 (W)
- 2013-09-14T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brislington · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bideford win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.