· Analysis updated 16:00 UTC
Bidezarra vs Mutilvera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.35 expected goals for Bidezarra and 1.65 for Mutilvera, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Mutilvera the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 22%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Mutilvera win
70.1% probability
Expected goals
0.35 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bidezarra home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mutilvera away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mutilvera to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 7% / 23% / 70% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.35 goals for Bidezarra and 1.65 for Mutilvera, a combined 2.00 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
30%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–122.3%
- 0–218.4%
- 0–013.5%
- 0–310.1%
- 1–17.8%
Recent form
Bidezarra
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Subiza · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Beti Onak · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Txantrea · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Izarra · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cortes · 0-2 (L)
Mutilvera
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Valle Egüés · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Gazte Berriak · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Huarte · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Gazte Berriak | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Beti Kozkor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Aoiz | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Subiza | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | San Juan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Doneztebe FT | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Beti Onak | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Txantrea | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Huarte | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Pamplona | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cortes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Bidezarra | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Cantolagua | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Cirbonero | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mutilvera win, at 70.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.