· Analysis updated 09:09 UTC
Biel-Bienne vs Bavois Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.25 expected goals for Biel-Bienne and 1.65 for Bavois, a combined total of 3.90. That distribution gives Biel-Bienne the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Biel-Bienne win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
2.25 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Biel-Bienne home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bavois away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–16.3%
- 1–26.2%
Recent form
Biel-Bienne
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Basel II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Amical Saint-Prex · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bavois · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzern II · 1-0 (W)
Bavois
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Amical Saint-Prex · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Breitenrain · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Biel-Bienne · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Luzern II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Young Boys II · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 5-2 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 2-3 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2025-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 1-2 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2024-11-02T15:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 2-1 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2024-03-27T19:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 4-0 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 3-2 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2023-03-25T14:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 0-3 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2022-09-18T13:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 0-1 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2022-06-04T14:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 5-0 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
- 2021-11-21T14:00:00.000Z · Biel-Bienne 4-2 Bavois (1. Liga Promotion)
1. Liga Promotion table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 26 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 3 | Bulle | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 24 |
| 4 | Paradiso | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | Cham | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 22 |
| 6 | Grand-Saconnex | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Basel II | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
| 8 | YF Juventus | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Amical Saint-Prex | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 19 |
| 10 | Zürich II | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 11 | Breitenrain | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 18 |
| 12 | Brühl | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 13 | Kreuzlingen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 15 |
| 14 | Lugano II | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 12 |
| 15 | Young Boys II | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Bavois | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 8 |
| 17 | Bellinzona | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 8 |
| 18 | Luzern II | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -13 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Biel-Bienne win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.