· Analysis updated 15:38 UTC
Bihor Oradea vs Farul Constanta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Bihor Oradea and 1.30 for Farul Constanta, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Bihor Oradea the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.2% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bihor Oradea home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Farul Constanta away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bihor Oradea to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 26% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Bihor Oradea and 1.30 for Farul Constanta, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
63%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.1%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.50 | 61.3% | 63.2% | 1.58 | +1.9 |
| Match result | Away | 2.50 | 35.7% | 36.8% | 2.72 | +1.1 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.77 | 50.8% | 51.8% | 1.93 | +1.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.45 | 36.4% | 36.8% | 2.72 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.45 | 63.4% | 63.2% | 1.58 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.83 | 49.2% | 48.2% | 2.07 | -1.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.20 | 27.9% | 26.4% | 3.79 | -1.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 75.3% | 73.6% | 1.36 | -1.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Bihor Oradea
- 2026-09-20T08:30:00.000Z · A vs CSM Ramnicu Valcea · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:30:00.000Z · H vs CSA Steaua Bucureşti · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Popești-Leordeni · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Corona Braşov · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-29T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Ştefăneşti · 4-0 (W)
Farul Constanta
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Bucuresti · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Uta Arad · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T17:30:00.000Z · A vs CFR 1907 Cluj · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Botosani · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-19T14:30:00.000Z · Bihor Oradea 1-0 Farul Constanta (Cupa României)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.