· Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Bilje vs Brinje-Grosuplje Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Bilje and 1.45 for Brinje-Grosuplje, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Bilje the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bilje win
54.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bilje home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brinje-Grosuplje away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bilje to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 21% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Bilje and 1.45 for Brinje-Grosuplje, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
46%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.1%
- 1–18.4%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 2–06.3%
Recent form
Bilje
- 2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bistrica · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Krka · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Beltinci · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dekani · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Krško · 1-3 (L)
Brinje-Grosuplje
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Koper · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Radomlje · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Nafta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Olimpija Ljubljana · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tabor Sežana | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 25 |
| 3 | Triglav | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 25 |
| 4 | Rudar | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Bilje | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 18 |
| 6 | Jesenice | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | Bistrica | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 17 |
| 8 | Slovan Ljubljana | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 | Ilirija | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| 10 | Dekani | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 11 | Dren Vrhnika | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Primorje | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 13 | Krško | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Dravinja | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 15 | Krka | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 7 |
| 16 | Brežice | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bilje win, at 54.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.