New Lodge · Analysis updated 08:31 UTC
Billericay Town vs Dorking Wanderers Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Billericay Town and 1.63 for Dorking Wanderers, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Dorking Wanderers the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dorking Wanderers win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Billericay Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dorking Wanderers away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dorking Wanderers to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 28% / 25% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Billericay Town and 1.63 for Dorking Wanderers, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 0–19.9%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–07.1%
Recent form
Billericay Town
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Farnborough · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torquay · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enfield Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidenhead · 2-2 (D)
Dorking Wanderers
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dover · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Chatham Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Southall · 5-4 (W)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Southall · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Horsham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dorking Wanderers win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.