New Lodge · Analysis updated 06:27 UTC
Billericay Town vs Torquay Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.80 expected goals for Billericay Town and 1.78 for Torquay, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Billericay Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.5% probability
Expected goals
1.80 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Billericay Town home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Billericay Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 22% / 39% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.80 goals for Billericay Town and 1.78 for Torquay, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 69% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.0%
- 2–18.1%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–05.0%
Recent form
Billericay Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Torquay · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Enfield Town · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Braintree · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maidenhead · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Chesham United · 2-1 (W)
Torquay
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oxford City · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slough Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tonbridge Angels · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Billericay Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Stoneham · 6-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 22 |
| 3 | Salisbury | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 5 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 21 |
| 6 | Tonbridge Angels | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 20 |
| 7 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham Town | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 12 | Folkestone Invicta | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 13 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 |
| 14 | Horsham | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 13 |
| 19 | Chesham United | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -14 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -17 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 12 | 1 | 1 | 10 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.