· Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Bình Phước vs Than Quang Ninh Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.70 expected goals for Bình Phước and 0.70 for Than Quang Ninh, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Bình Phước the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bình Phước win
61.4% probability
Expected goals
1.70 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Bình Phước home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Than Quang Ninh away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bình Phước to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 24% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.70 goals for Bình Phước and 0.70 for Than Quang Ninh, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 2–013.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–09.1%
Recent form
Bình Phước
- 2026-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Dong Thap · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Công An Nhân Dân · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Xuan Thien Phu Tho · 0-1 (L)
Than Quang Ninh
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hai Phong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Hung Yen · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồ Chí Minh II · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-30T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanna Khanh Hoa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-23T10:00:00.000Z · H vs PVF-CAND · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thai Nguyen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Hung Yen | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 7 |
| 3 | Sanna Khanh Hoa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Binh Duong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Dong Thap | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Than Quang Ninh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 7 | Pho Hien | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 8 | Văn Hiến | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 9 | Lam Dong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Long An | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 12 | Binh Dinh | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 13 | Bóng đá Huế | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 14 | Xuan Thien Phu Tho | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -9 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bình Phước win, at 61.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.