Binissalem vs Cardassar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.29 expected goals for Binissalem and 1.96 for Cardassar, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Cardassar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cardassar win

53.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.29 – 1.96

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Binissalem home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cardassar away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cardassar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 25% / 22% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.29 goals for Binissalem and 1.96 for Cardassar, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Binissalem win25%

Draw22%

Cardassar win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–19.8%
1–29.6%
0–17.6%
0–27.5%
2–16.3%

Recent form

Binissalem

2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 1-3 (L)

Cardassar

2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Alcúdia · 6-2 (W)
2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Platges Calvià · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Constància · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Santanyí · 0-0 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-03-22T16:00:00.000Z · Binissalem 4-2 Cardassar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Binissalem 1-1 Cardassar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2021-05-22T15:00:00.000Z · Binissalem 1-0 Cardassar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)
2021-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · Binissalem 0-0 Cardassar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ibiza Islas Pitiusas	6	5	1	0	9	16
2	Manacor	6	5	0	1	9	15
3	Cardassar	6	4	1	1	7	13
4	Constància	6	4	1	1	7	13
5	Platges Calvià	6	4	0	2	6	12
6	Santanyí	6	3	3	0	5	12
7	Formentera	6	3	2	1	4	11
8	PE Sant Jordi	6	3	2	1	3	11
9	Llosetense	6	3	1	2	2	10
10	Alcúdia	6	3	0	3	0	9
11	Porreres	6	3	0	3	0	9
12	Binissalem	6	2	0	4	-3	6
13	Mercadal	6	1	2	3	-2	5
14	Andratx	6	1	2	3	-3	5
15	Migjorn	6	1	0	5	-9	3
16	Arenal	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Inter Ibiza	6	0	1	5	-13	1
18	Sineu	6	0	0	6	-13	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cardassar win, at 53.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.