Estadio Miquel Pons · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Binissalem vs Son Cladera Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Binissalem and 1.25 for Son Cladera, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives Binissalem the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.9% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Binissalem home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Son Cladera away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Binissalem to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Binissalem and 1.25 for Son Cladera, a combined 2.68 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.6%
- 1–27.7%
Recent form
Binissalem
- 2026-10-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Andratx · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Sineu · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Migjorn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-18T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Platges Calvià · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardassar · 1-3 (L)
Son Cladera
- 2026-05-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Binissalem · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Felanitx · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Peña Deportiva · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Portmany · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rotlet Molinar · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ibiza Islas Pitiusas | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 16 |
| 2 | Manacor | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Cardassar | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Constància | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | Platges Calvià | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 12 |
| 6 | Santanyí | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 7 | Formentera | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 8 | PE Sant Jordi | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Llosetense | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Alcúdia | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | Porreres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Binissalem | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Mercadal | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Andratx | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 15 | Migjorn | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 16 | Arenal | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | Inter Ibiza | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -13 | 1 |
| 18 | Sineu | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.