· Analysis updated 11:28 UTC
Birkenhead United vs Ferrymead Bays Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.24 expected goals for Birkenhead United and 0.97 for Ferrymead Bays, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Birkenhead United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Birkenhead United win
66.1% probability
Expected goals
2.24 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birkenhead United home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Ferrymead Bays away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Birkenhead United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.24 goals for Birkenhead United and 0.97 for Ferrymead Bays, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.0%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–07.6%
Recent form
Birkenhead United
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cashmere Technical · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-12-07T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Springs · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Phoenix II · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-11-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-11-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland United · 2-3 (L)
Ferrymead Bays
- 2026-10-03T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Eastern Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-02-24T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Cashmere Technical · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-08-30T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Nomads United · 2-1 (W)
- 2025-08-23T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Wanaka · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - National table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Miramar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Birkenhead United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Auckland United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Wellington Olympic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Napier City Rovers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Ferrymead Bays | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Eastern Suburbs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 11 | Wellington Phoenix II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Birkenhead United win, at 66.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.